报告题目：Rationed Fertility: Treatment Effect Heterogeneity in the Child Quantity-Quality Tradeoff（管制生育：小孩数量质量权衡中的处理效应异质性）

时间：5月26日（周三）10：00-11：30

参会方式：腾讯会议链接： https://meeting.tencent.com/s/iAxNbHiWkHUo

     会议 ID：666 495 683

     会议密码：32123

主持人：（国发院）赵耀辉、李玲、刘国恩、雷晓燕、张丹丹

     （经院）秦雪征、石菊、王耀璟、袁野

主讲人：郭汝飞（武汉大学经济与管理学院）

报告摘要：

We develop a generalized theory of rationed fertility to analyze treatment effect heterogeneity in the child quantity-quality (QQ) tradeoff. An exogenous increase in fertility can either be desired—that is, a move toward optimal fertility; or undesired—that is, a move away from optimal fertility. Our theory derives a new positive rationing income effect on child quality for desired fertility increases, but a negative rationing income effect for undesired fertility increases. We explore the natural experiment of twin births and China’s “One-child” policy to test the differential treatment effects between desired and undesired fertility increases. Consistent with our theoretical predictions, the estimated QQ effect for undesired fertility increases is negative, and the estimated QQ effect for desired fertility increases is positive. Our study highlights the importance of distinguishing between desired and undesired changes when evaluating social programs.

主讲人简介：

郭汝飞，武汉大学经济与管理学院长聘副教授，世界经济系副系主任，健康经济与管理研究中心执行主任。研究领域为微观发展经济学，健康经济学和国际经济学。论文发表于Economic Journal, Journal of Development Economics, Journal of Comparative Economics和《经济研究》等学术期刊。主持国家自然科学基金项目，并担任中国经济学年会人口劳动与健康经济专业委员会委员。