题目：中国改革四十年增长和全要素生产率表现的制度解读

演讲者：Harry X. Wu（伍晓鹰，北京大学国家发展研究院）

时间：2021年5月21日（周五上午）10:00-11:30

线下：朗润园512教室

简介：以对中国经济“起飞阶段”的量化历史定位为背景，同时以对中国经济增长模式的制度问题理解为基础，本文通过一个可以系统地整合行业生产率账户的增长核算模型，以及满足这个模型的投入和产出变量矩阵的数据库，尝试对中国经济改革四十年的增长和全要素生产率表现进行一个制度解读。我们追溯了不同政策时期不同行业对宏观经济增长和生产率表现的影响。结果显示，以麦迪森1990年不变价格PPP估计的人均收入为基准，中国在2018年达到了人均收入PPP$8,000，完成了自1982年PPP$1,000开始的罗斯托概念上的“经济起飞”阶段。大致与这个阶段重叠的改革四十年GDP年平均增长为8.3%，其中，经过同质化处理后的资本投入贡献为6.3、劳动投入贡献为1.1、TFP贡献为0.9个百分点。此外，资源重新配置的TFP效果也显示了资本错配且近十年在恶化。将这个发现与相似阶段东亚经济体比较，有过于粗放增长的特征，但是基本符合因政府增长竞赛导致的，过度依靠资本投入推动的高增长和低效率预期。“政策分期”对行业与投入要素类型的解析亦倾向肯定这样的制度解读。

About the speaker:

Harry X. Wu Recently joined National School of Development, Peking University as Professor of Economics. Prior to this NSD appointment, he had worked as tenured Professor at the Institute of Economic Research (IER), Hitotsubashi University, from 2009-2018.

He is a renowned growth economist on the Chinese economy with major research interests in growth accounting, productivity theory, macroeconomic measurement, growth and volatility, international comparisons using the Maddison-type cost PPPs
approach, and the economics of central planning and transition focusing on institutional interpretation of growth and productivity change. He has contributed extensively to the global debate on China’s real growth and productivity performance in the long run and since the reform.

He worked closely with the late Professor Angus Maddison on China’s historical data and is currently the council member of the global endeavor Maddison Project. He has been also serving The Conference Board (TCB) (New York) as Senior Advisor and TCB China Center (Beijing) as Research Director.

He was the Fifth President of the Asian KLEMS (an acronym of capital, labor, energy, materials and services as “full inputs” of a fully integrated growth accounting framework), a regional productivity research consortium to promote studies on growth and productivity in Asian economies, associated with the World KLEMS Initiative at Harvard University. He was member of the 28th Council of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth (IARIW).

He has constructed and maintained two unique databases, China Economic Growth Database (CEG) basically following the Maddison-Wu approach and China Industry Productivity Database (CIP) following the KLEMS approach.

He can be reached via the following emails: harry.x.wu@gmail.com, harrywu@nsd.pku.edu.cn or harry.wu@ier.hit-u.ac.jp.