Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory

时间：2020年10月29日（周四）14:00-15:30 pm

形式：线上线下同时进行

线下地点：万众楼一楼小教室

线上链接（Zoom平台）：

https://zoom.com.cn/j/97759197373?pwd=dlF3VEJzTVdsYlRpTGNxdE9Rb0IzQT09

主讲人：Zhen Huo (Yale University)

主持人：Bo Zhao, Changhua Yu, Ping Yan

主题：Imperfect Macroeconomic Expectations: Evidence and Theory

摘要：We document a new fact about survey expectations: in response to the main shocks driving the business cycle, expectations of unemployment and inflation under-react initially but over-shoot later on. We show how previous, seemingly conflicting, evidence can be understood as different facets of this fact. We finally explain what the cumulated evidence means for macroeconomic theory. There is little support for theories emphasizing under-extrapolation or two close cousins of it, cognitive discounting and level-K thinking. Instead, the evidence favors the combination of dispersed, noisy information and over-extrapolation.

作者简介：Zhen Huo is an Assistant Professor at Yale University. He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Minnesota, and a Bachelors degree in Economics and Mathematics from Renmin University of China. His research focuses on business cycle fluctuations, information frictions and expectation formation, and heterogeneous agent models and has been published in journals such as American Economic Review, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics and the Review of Economic Dynamics.

附：Zoom会议详情

主题：赵波 workshop

时间：2020年10月29日 02:00 下午 北京，上海

加入 Zoom 会议

https://zoom.com.cn/j/97759197373?pwd=dlF3VEJzTVdsYlRpTGNxdE9Rb0IzQT09

会议 ID：977 5919 7373

密码：947624