时间：周三 下午14：00-15：30（北京时间）

地点：朗润园512教室

主讲人：Chew Soo Hong（周恕泓）,  National University of Singapore

题目: Decision Error and Contingent Reasoning

报告摘要: This talk is motivated by some classic decision-making puzzles each pointing to some form of choice error which may be attributable to a failure in contingent reasoning. Besides the Allais’ (1953) common-consequence problem and Ellsberg’s (1961) three-color problem, we will discuss the Monty Hall problem, the failure of the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism as discussed in Cason-Plott (2014), and the acquiring-a-company problem (Samuelson-Bazerman, 1985) which relates to Akerlof’s (1970) lemons problem and the winner’s curse in common value auctions (Capen, Clapp, and Campbell, 1971; Charness and Levin, 2009). We offer a definition of contingent reasoning which relies on aggregating the contingency-induced choices arising from hypothetical knowledge. This helps shape the design of experiments by adopting a treatment which exposes the decision maker to hypothetical knowledge relating to the situation at hand before making the actual incentivized choices.  Results from preliminary studies indicate that our hypothetical knowledge treatment is effective in enhancing the quality of decision making by reducing the incidence of failure in contingent reasoning ex ante. It appears that a hypothetical-knowledge based enhancement of decision making may be applicable to a wide range of settings especially where education and training are involved.

主讲人简介：

周恕泓（Chew Soo Hong），新加坡国立大学讲席教授，世界计量经济学会院士（Fellow）。周恕弘教授是世界著名的实验经济学家和行为经济学家，曾执教于美国亚利桑那大学、约翰·霍普金斯大学、加州大学尔湾分校、香港科技大学（担任讲座教授）。在Econometrica、Journal of Economic Theory等世界顶级学术期刊上发表十多篇论文，2011年他当选为世界计量经济学会（Econometric Society）的院士（Fellow）。

详见: http://www.fas.nus.edu.sg/ecs/people/profile/ecscsh.html