时间：2020年10月22日（周四）14:00-16:00

地点：北京大学国家发展研究院致福轩会议室

主持人：余淼杰，余昌华

主讲人：樊海潮（14:00-15:00），丁浩员（15:00-16:00）

论文题目：

1. 樊海潮：Trade Uncertainty and Firm Pollution
2. 丁浩员：Equilibrium Consequences of Corruption on Firms: Evidence from China’s Anti-Corruption Campaign

论文摘要:

1. 樊海潮：How does a reduction in trade policy uncertainty affect firms’ pollution behavior? Guided by a simple model, we show that the answer to this question depends on whether an emission cap exists. We find that the reduced uncertainty increases firm output by comparable magnitudes across the regions, but they reduce firm SO2 emission intensity and firm total SO2 emissions only in regions with emission caps. The decline in SO2 emissions is caused by reduced use of fossil fuel and more abatement equipment. We also find that the reduced uncertainty improves firms’ productivity more when emission caps exist.
2. 丁浩员：We use China's recent anti-corruption campaign as a natural experiment to examine the (market expected) equilibrium consequences of (anti-)corruption. We argue that the announcement of inspections of provincial governments by the Central Commission for Discipline Inspection (CCDI) on May 17, 2013 represents a significant departure of past norms of anti-corruption campaigns, and thus serves a rare empirical opportunity to examine the equilibrium effects of anti-corruption campaigns for firms. We first present a conceptual framework to illustrate the channels through which anti-corruption actions can influence firms. Using an event study approach and May 17, 2013 as the event date, we find that, overall, the stock market responded positively to the announcement of strong anti-corruption actions. The announcement returns are significantly lower for luxury-goods producers, and SOES, large firms, or politically connected firms earn lower returns than private, small, or non-connected firms. We also find that existing local institutions play a crucial role in determining the announcement returns across firms. Moreover, a long-term difference-in-differences analysis shows that higher returns during the event window are associated with more subsequent entries of new firms and faster expansions of existing firms. Finally, we also provide direct evidence consistent with the endogenous grits effect.

主讲人简介:

1. 樊海潮，复旦大学经济学院教授，博导，“万人计划”青年拔尖人才。根据经济学研究机构IDEAS按照RePEc数据进行的排名（基于近10年的发表），是全球排名前5%的经济学者。学术成果发表在Review of Economics and Statistics, Journal of International Economics, Economic Journal, Journal of Development Economics, Review of Economic Dynamics等国际一流学术期刊上。现任Economic Modelling副主编，世界经济文汇责任编辑。
2. 丁浩员，香港中文大学经济学博士，上海市晨光学者。现任上海财经大学商学院（讲席）副教授、博士生导师，院长助理分管国际化工作，全球经济与金融研究中心副主任。发表刊物如Journal of International Economics、Journal of Comparative Economics、Journal of International Money and Finance等15篇，主持国家自然科学基金及省部级项目3项，浦山学术研究奖获得者。