时间：12月19日（周四）13：30-15：00

地点：北京大学经济学院606教室

主持人：赵耀辉、雷晓燕、张丹丹、秦雪征、王耀璟、袁野

主讲人：易君健（新加坡国立大学经济系助理教授）

题目: Rationing Income Effect and the Child Quantity-Quality Trade-off

报告摘要:

Do population control policies promote human capital development? The literature has achieved little consensus on the sign and magnitude of the effect of fertility on child outcomes. To explain the heterogeneous effect, we build a general theory of rationed fertility that distinguishes between desired and undesired exogenous fertility changes. Our model shows that a desired increase in fertility generates a positive rationing income effect on child outcomes, whereas an undesired fertility increase has a negative rationing income effect. To identify the rationing income effect, we combine the natural experiment of twin births with a quasi-experiment ---China’s “One-child” policy. Consistent with the theoretical prediction, we find that the fertility increase induced by twinning has a smaller negative effect on children’s education if the mother is under higher exposure to the “One-child” policy, indicating a positive rationing income effect with a desired fertility increase under the population control regime. Our study helps explain the empirical findings on the heterogeneous fertility effects and advances our understanding of how population control policies affect human capital investment. The rationing income effect also helps explain heterogeneous treatment effects in other settings in which exogenous variations in the treatment status comes from different sources.

主讲人简介：

易君健，男，1978年出生于湖南省湘乡市。2011年获得香港中文大学博士学位。2011年至2014年赴美国芝加哥大学经济系从事博士后研究，师从James Heckman（2000年诺贝尔经济学奖得主）和Gary Becker（1992年诺贝尔经济学奖得主）。2014年至今担任新加坡国立大学经济系助理教授。

目前的研究兴趣主要集中于医疗与健康经济学、医疗与健康大数据分析、人力资本理论、劳动和人口经济学、发展经济学、计量经济学和行为经济学，先后在经济学、管理学与人口学等领域内的国际顶级学术期刊发表科研论文，包括Demography, Management Science, Review of Economics and Statistics, Economic Journal, International Economic Review, Journal of Labor Economics。