时间：2019年9月20日（周五）12:00-14:00

　　地点：艺园会议室

　　主讲人：李硕（国家发展研究院）

　　主持人：徐晋涛、王敏、黄卓、邢剑炜

　　题目：Seafood Intake and the Incidence of Noncommunicable Diseases in China: Evidence from the China Health and Nutrition Survey

　　摘要：

　　This paper uses Cox proportional hazard model to investigate the effect of seafood intake on risks of four noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) in China, including hypertension, type 2 diabetes, heart attack and stroke. Since the effect of food consumption on health outcome may be nonlinear, we add high-order terms of food consumption and nutrition to control the nonlinearity and use nonparametric binned approach to capture the nonlinear effect of seafood consumption. To our best knowledge, this paper is the first to introduce the idea of fixed effect from panel data econometrics into Cox model, which helps reduce omitted variables bias. We add community dummies as community fixed effects to capture all time-invariant differences across neighborhoods (for urban regions) or villages (for rural regions). The estimators of interest change with different specifications, indicating the possible existence of endogeneity in previous cohort studies. We find that consuming 0-200 g/week seafood significantly reduces the risk of all the four NCDs but this paper does not find strong evidence to support the amount (280-525 g) of seafood intake suggested by Chinese dietary guidelines. We also detect significant heterogeneous effects across regions within China.

　　主讲人简介：李硕，北京大学国家发展研究院三年级博士生，研究领域为环境、自然资源与健康。